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The Composite State of the Economy Index increased by 0.05 percent in December, and together with data for previous months, it indicates an expectation for a small increase in economic activity at the end of 2022.

The Index was positively affected by increases in the Industrial Production Index (November), imports of manufacturing inputs (December), and employee posts (October). In contrast, the Services Revenue Index (November), the retail trade revenue index (November), consumer goods imports (December), goods exports (December), services exports (October), building starts (September), electricity production (December), and credit card purchases (December) declined, which had a negative impact on the Index.

Index figures for July­–November were revised upward, due to revisions in data for Index components in previous months, particularly the upward revision of most data for September.

Table 1 presents the revisions to the Index for previous months.  Table 2 presents the development of components of the Index in the past few months.

Table 1: Revisions in the Composite Index (percent)

Revision

Previous figure

New figure

December

 

0.05

November

0.07

0.09

October

0.21

0.33

September

0.28

0.36

August

0.12

0.18

July

0.04

0.07

 

Table 2: Changes in the Index components in recent months

(monthly percent change, unless otherwise noted)

 

December

November

October

September

Industrial Production Index

(excluding mining and quarrying)

 

 3.8

-5.4

0.0

Services Revenue Index

(excluding education and public administration)

 

-0.5 

0.1

0.5

Retail Trade Revenue Index

 

 -2.6

3.4

2.8

Imports of consumer goods1

-2.0

-4.5

8.4

-2.4

Imports of manufacturing inputs

(excluding fuels)1

1.6

-2.3

-4.0

1.0

Goods exports (excluding agriculture)1

-13.6

-4.6

4.6

-2.4

Services exports (excluding transportation)2

 

 

 -1.1

1.0

Number of employee posts in the private sector

 

 

0.3 

0.2

Job vacancy rate in the business sector3

4.5 

4.5 

4.6

4.8

Building starts4

 

 

 

7.6- 

Electricity production5

-0.7

0.2

0.3

1.3

Credit card purchases6

-0.4

0.2

-4.0

0.5

 

1 Goods imports and exports are calculated in fixed prices (adjusted for changes in foreign trade price indices).

2 Services exports are calculated in real terms using the Consumer Price Index, and are comprised of the export of other business services and the export of tourism services.

3 The job vacancy rate is calculated out of the total number of employed people, and is included in the index at its seasonally adjusted level.

4 Since the Central Bureau of Statistics publishes data on building starts once per quarter, the data integrated into the model are at a monthly frequency based on additional sources, such that the distribution is consistent with the quarterly data published by the Central Bureau of Statistics (in percent, seasonally adjusted).

5 Electricity production is calculated as the rate of change relative to the previous month, adjusted for the effect of the weather and seasonality on daily, weekly, and annual bases.

6 The credit card purchases figure is the monthly seasonally adjusted change according to Central Bureau of Statistics publications.  When the CBS figure for a month is not available, the figure listed is the monthly rate of change according to daily data from SHVA, seasonally adjusted on weekly and monthly bases.