Following the near-zero increase in September, the Bank of Israel's Composite State of the Economy Index again increased in the past two months. The Index for November increased by 0.16 percent. This increase took place following the fourth wave, and in view of the fact that since the reopening of the economy following the third wave (in February 2021), there remain restrictions that are particularly affecting incoming tourism.
The Index was positively affected by increases in the Industrial Production Index (October), the services revenue index (October), the import of consumer goods (November), import of production inputs (November), and services exports (September). The job vacancy rate also increased slightly in November, and remains at a record high that reflects the continued desire of employers to expand their operations following the reopening of the economy. In contrast, declines in building starts (September) and goods exports (November) had a negative impact on the Index. Employee posts (September) and the retail trade revenue index (October) remained virtually unchanged.
The Index readings for May–June and October, mainly building starts and import of consumer goods, were revised downward (Table 1).
Table 2 presents the development of components of the Index in the past few months.
In view of the uniqueness of the crisis and the resulting measurement difficulties, the changes in the Index should not be used as an indicator of the precise intensity of changes in economic activity.
Table 1: Revisions in the Composite Index
|
Revision |
Previous figure |
New figure |
|
November |
|
0.16 |
|
October |
0.25 |
0.13 |
|
September |
0.05 |
0.07 |
|
August |
0.16 |
0.16 |
|
July |
0.1 |
0.08 |
|
June |
0.37 |
0.3 |
Table 2: Changes in the Index components in recent months♦
(monthly percent change, unless otherwise noted)
|
|
November |
October |
September |
August |
|
Industrial Production Index (excluding mining and quarrying) |
|
0.7 |
1.5 |
-2.8 |
|
Services Revenue Index (excluding education and public administration) |
|
1.1 |
1.7 |
3.2 |
|
Retail Trade Revenue Index |
|
-0.1 |
0.9 |
3.5 |
|
Imports of consumer goods1 |
2.7 |
-2.2 |
3.9 |
2.5 |
|
Imports of manufacturing inputs (excluding fuels)1 |
2.1 |
-0.9 |
3.0 |
6.3 |
|
Goods exports (excluding agriculture)1 |
-3.2 |
2.9 |
-2.9 |
0.3 |
|
Services exports (excluding transportation)2 |
|
|
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
Number of employee posts in the private sector |
|
|
-0.1 |
0.8 |
|
Job vacancy rate in the business sector3 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
|
Building starts4 |
|
|
-7.0 |
|
1 Goods imports and exports are calculated in fixed prices (adjusted for changes in foreign trade price indices).
2 Services exports are calculated in real terms using the Consumer Price Index, and are comprised of the export of other business services and the export of tourism services.
3 The job vacancy rate is calculated out of the total number of employed people, and is included in the index at its seasonally adjusted level.
4 Since the Central Bureau of Statistics publishes data on building starts once per quarter, the data integrated into the model are at a monthly frequency based on additional sources, such that the distribution is consistent with the quarterly data published by the Central Bureau of Statistics (in percent, seasonally adjusted).
Detailed explanations regarding how the Composite Index is calculated, as well as detailed long-term tables, can be found at
https://www.boi.org.il/en/Research/Pages/ind.aspx