Abstract
We examine how inflation risks in Israel evolved over time. We find that until 2013, inflation uncertainty was stable, and risks were moderately skewed downwards. However, since 2014, uncertainty decreased, and downside risks to inflation became much more dominant. The model attributes these developments to the decline in the inflation environment, as it is captured by realized inflation and long-term expectations, and to changes in oil prices. However, we cannot rule out that the monetary rate approaching the effective lower bound also contributed to these changes.
Keywords: inflation at risk, density forecasts, quantile regressions, effective lower bound.
JEL Classification: E31, E37, E58.