The monthly Index of Economic Activity was unchanged in October

The monthly Index of Economic Activity was virtually unchanged in October, following an increase in September that reflected the emergence from Israel’s military operation against Iran

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The monthly Index of Economic Activity[1] was virtually unchanged in October, following an increase in September that reflected the emergence from Israel’s military operation against Iran (Figure 1). The index this month reflects the average monthly growth estimate from August to October.  The Index was negatively influenced by declines in credit card purchase data, mainly in August and October, data on goods exports in the mixed-high technology industries in August and September, data on other services exports in August, data on goods imports in August and October, trade and services revenue and industrial production of construction inputs and of mixed-high technology in August, labor market data regarding real wage payments in August, and gasoline consumption in September.

In contrast, indirect tax and income tax data for September, and actual GDP for the third quarter moderated the decline in the Index (Tables 1 and 2).

The Index for the past two months was revised upward with the completion of data that were previously missing, including actual GDP data for the third quarter.

Figure 1 presents the Index data over the past two years.  Table 1 presents the contributions of the Index’s components to the overall estimate and revisions to the Index, and Table 2 presents the monthly rate of change in the Index’s components.

 

FIGURE 1: The Monthly Index of Economic Activity

 

* The table presents the contribution of each group of components in the monthly index, such that the monthly estimate constitutes the sum of the contributions of each of the components detailed in the table.  Some of the raw data influence the monthly estimate with a lag or influence the estimates of several months.

 

 Table 2 | Changes in the Index Components in Recent Months

(monthly rates of change, percent, seasonally adjusted)

 

[1] The monthly Index of Economic Activity reflects the three-month average of the estimated monthly growth of GDP.  The estimate is based on a model developed at the Bank of Israel (Ginker and Suhoy, 2021).