The Composite State of the Economy Index declined by 0.1 percent in October, similar to the September index which remained unchanged. The October index includes current indicators of economic activity, which provide a mixed picture regarding the level of economic activity in the fourth quarter, with a slight tendency toward weakening.
The Index was positively influenced by increases in the goods exports and credit card purchases (October), and in the Industrial production Index and the retail trade and services revenue indices (September). In contrast, imports of consumption goods and imports of production inputs goods (October), and services exports and employee posts (September) declined, which negatively influenced the index.
The September index was revised upward once the remaining September and third quarter National Accounts data were obtained. Table 1 presents the retroactive revisions to the Index for previous months. Table 2 presents the development of components of the Index in the past few months.
Table 1: Revisions in the Composite Index (percent)
|
Revision |
Previous figure |
New figure |
|
October |
|
-0.06 |
|
September |
-0.30 |
0.01 |
|
August |
-0.42 |
-0.36 |
|
July |
-0.04 |
0.06 |
|
June |
-0.22 |
-0.12 |
|
May |
0.10 |
0.00 |
Table 2: Changes in the Index components in recent months
(monthly change, percent, unless otherwise noted)
|
|
October |
September |
August |
July |
|
Industrial Production Index (excluding mining and quarrying) |
|
0.3 |
-0.4 |
1.6 |
|
Services Revenue Index (excluding education and public administration) |
|
0.4 |
-1.4 |
3.1 |
|
Retail Trade Revenue Index |
|
3.4 |
-6.5 |
1.3 |
|
Imports of consumption goods1 |
-1.6 |
5.8 |
-2.0 |
3.7 |
|
Imports of production inputs (excluding fuels)1 |
-4.8 |
14.6 |
-1.8 |
2.5 |
|
Goods exports (excluding agriculture)1 |
7.3 |
-4.5 |
8.8 |
3.8 |
|
Services exports (excluding transportation)2 |
|
|
-2.8 |
2.9 |
|
Employee posts in the private sector |
|
|
-0.2 |
0.2 |
|
Job vacancy rate in the business sector3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
|
Building starts4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Credit card purchases5 |
0.4 |
1.5 |
-3.7 |
2.0 |
1 Goods imports and exports are calculated in fixed prices (adjusted for changes in foreign trade price indices).
2 Services exports are calculated in real terms using the Consumer Price Index, and are comprised of the export of other business services and the export of tourism services.
3 The job vacancy rate is calculated out of the total number of employed people, and is included in the index at its seasonally adjusted level.
4 Since the Central Bureau of Statistics publishes data on building starts once per quarter, the data integrated into the model are at a monthly frequency based on additional sources, such that the distribution is consistent with the quarterly data published by the Central Bureau of Statistics (in percent, seasonally adjusted).
5 The credit card purchases figure is the monthly seasonally adjusted change according to Central Bureau of Statistics publications. When the CBS figure for a month is not available, the figure listed is an estimate based on the monthly rate of change according to daily data from SHVA, seasonally adjusted.