October 18,2001
Table 1: Changes in money supply (M1) and expected
inflation
|
Expected inflation rate
(monthly average,%)
|
|
M1 money supply
|
|
|
|
Expectations from
capital market
|
|
Rate of change (%)
|
Average
monthly
blance
(NIS
|
|
Average
of inflation
forecasts
for first
yearf
|
Third year
and
beyonde
|
Second
yeard
|
First yearc
|
|
Previous 12
monthsb
|
Monthlya
|
billion)
|
1999
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
December
|
4.1
|
5.1
|
3.7
|
2.9
|
|
14.3
|
7.1
|
23.5
|
2000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
January
|
3.7
|
3.9
|
3.0
|
2.6
|
|
13.9
|
-1.0
|
23.3
|
February
|
3.7
|
3.3
|
2.6
|
2.9
|
|
13.3
|
-2.9
|
22.6
|
March
|
3.4
|
2.9
|
2.6
|
2.5
|
|
9.8
|
1.0
|
22.8
|
April
|
3.6
|
3.4
|
3.3
|
2.9
|
|
13.3
|
2.9
|
23.5
|
May
|
3.9
|
2.9
|
3.0
|
3.7
|
|
12.1
|
-1.0
|
23.3
|
June
|
4.0
|
3.0
|
2.9
|
3.6
|
|
13.0
|
1.9
|
23.7
|
July
|
3.6
|
2.9
|
2.1
|
2.5
|
|
9.6
|
1.6
|
24.1
|
August
|
3.0
|
2.7
|
1.7
|
2.2
|
|
9.9
|
0.9
|
24.3
|
September
|
2.4
|
2.3
|
2.0
|
2.3
|
|
8.7
|
0.3
|
24.4
|
October
|
2.8
|
2.9
|
1.8
|
2.2
|
|
11.8
|
0.6
|
24.6
|
November
|
2.9
|
2.8
|
2.1
|
1.8
|
|
9.9
|
-1.7
|
24.1
|
December
|
2.5
|
2.2
|
1.4
|
0.8
|
|
7.5
|
4.8
|
25.3
|
2001
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
January
|
2.2
|
2.0
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
|
6.5
|
- 2.0
|
24.8
|
February
|
2.5
|
2.0
|
1.2
|
2.0
|
|
11.2
|
1.4
|
25.2
|
March
|
2.5
|
2.0
|
1.1
|
2.0
|
|
13.9
|
3.5
|
26.0
|
April
|
2.5
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
1.3
|
|
12.5
|
1.6
|
26.4
|
May
|
2.2
|
2.0
|
1.8
|
1.2
|
|
13.7
|
0.1
|
26.5
|
June
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
1.5
|
1.8
|
|
13.4
|
1.6
|
26.9
|
July
|
2.0
|
2.2
|
2.6
|
2.1
|
|
14.9
|
3.0
|
27.7
|
Augost
|
2.2
|
2.7
|
1.7
|
2.9
|
|
16.3
|
2.1
|
28.3
|
September
|
2.7
|
3.2
|
3.5
|
3.5
|
|
18.6
|
2.4
|
29.0
|
October
|
2.6
|
2.4
|
2.9
|
2.3
|
|
17.0
|
-0.8
|
28.7
|
a The change, in percent, from the average level in the previos month to the average level in the current
month.
b The change, in percent, from the average level in the same month in the previous year to the average level
in the current month.
c An explanation of the method of calculating inflation expectations can be found in Appendix 1 to the Inflation
Report for July-December 1999 (Inflation Report No. 5).
d Based on returns on various bonds (Shahar, and Galil or Sagi) with equivalent terms to maturity.
e From July 2000—due to the extension of the issue term of Shahar bonds from five to seven years—the simple
averages of inflation expectations for the third year to the seventh year, inclusive, are shown (based on returns
on Shahar bonds and Galil or Sagi bonds for equivalent terms). Prior to July 2000 the figures shown are the
simple averages of inflation expectations for the third year to the fifth year, inclusive.
f The simple average of inflation forecasts by commercial banks and economic consultants who publish their
forecasts regularly.
g Preliminary data of the money supply.
The Bank of Israel states that in the monthly discussions on monetary planning a wide
range of data and indicators of the state of the economy are taken into consideration,
including inflation expectations, changes in a variety of price indices, the monetary
aggregates, exchange rates, capital flows, the extent and composition of economic activity,
the labor market, the balance of payments, etc.
Table 2: The actual rate of inflation and changes in the exchange
rate
|
Change in exchange rate
(monthly average, %)
|
|
Actual rate of inflation
(%)
|
|
NIS/$
|
|
NIS/currency basket
|
|
Previous 12
monthsb
|
Monthlya
|
|
Previous 12
monthsd
|
Monthlyc
|
|
Previous 12
monthsd
|
Monthlyc
|
|
|
|
1999
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
January
|
14.1
|
-2.3
|
|
17.0
|
-2.4
|
|
7.8
|
-0.5
|
February
|
13.2
|
-0.3
|
|
14.6
|
-1.4
|
|
7.0
|
-0.8
|
March
|
12.4
|
-0.9
|
|
13.0
|
-1.7
|
|
7.0
|
-0.2
|
April
|
9.6
|
0.7
|
|
9.6
|
0.3
|
|
5.9
|
0.3
|
May
|
12.2
|
1.4
|
|
11.8
|
1.2
|
|
6.0
|
0.5
|
June
|
11.6
|
-0.7
|
|
10.8
|
-1.3
|
|
5.9
|
0.3
|
July
|
11.9
|
0.2
|
|
11.1
|
0.0
|
|
6.3
|
0.3
|
August
|
13.4
|
2.6
|
|
13.7
|
3.6
|
|
6.3
|
0.5
|
September
|
10.5
|
1.0
|
|
9.2
|
1.3
|
|
5.3
|
0.5
|
October
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
|
-0.5
|
1.1
|
|
2.9
|
0.7
|
November
|
0.0
|
-0.9
|
|
-2.2
|
-1.8
|
|
1.4
|
-0.2
|
December
|
0.4
|
-0.8
|
|
-2.5
|
-1.2
|
|
1.3
|
0.0
|
2000
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
January
|
0.6
|
-2.1
|
|
-2.1
|
-2.0
|
|
1.3
|
-0.5
|
February
|
-0.3
|
-1.2
|
|
-3.0
|
-2.3
|
|
1.6
|
-0.5
|
March
|
-0.7
|
-1.2
|
|
-2.9
|
-1.6
|
|
1.5
|
-0.3
|
April
|
-0.5
|
0.9
|
|
-2.5
|
0.7
|
|
1.7
|
0.5
|
May
|
0.7
|
2.6
|
|
-2.6
|
1.1
|
|
2.1
|
0.9
|
June
|
0.4
|
-0.9
|
|
-1.1
|
0.2
|
|
2.1
|
0.3
|
July
|
0.2
|
-0.4
|
|
-1.9
|
-0.7
|
|
2.1
|
0.3
|
August
|
-3.7
|
-1.0
|
|
-7.2
|
-2.0
|
|
1.0
|
-0.6
|
September
|
-4.9
|
-0.2
|
|
-9.5
|
-1.2
|
|
0.0
|
-0.6
|
October
|
-3.7
|
1.7
|
|
-9.3
|
1.2
|
|
-0.1
|
0.6
|
November
|
-2.8
|
0.1
|
|
-7.7
|
0.0
|
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
December
|
-2.7
|
-0.7
|
|
-6.3
|
0.3
|
|
0.0
|
-0.1
|
2001
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
January
|
0.4
|
0.9
|
|
-2.6
|
1.8
|
|
-0.1
|
-0.6
|
February
|
1.7
|
0.1
|
|
-0.8
|
-0.5
|
|
0.3
|
-0.1
|
March
|
4.0
|
1.0
|
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
April
|
3.4
|
0.3
|
|
0.3
|
-0.3
|
|
1.2
|
0.9
|
May
|
-0.1
|
-0.9
|
|
-1.9
|
-1.2
|
|
0.7
|
0.4
|
June
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
|
-2.3
|
-0.1
|
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
July
|
2.7
|
0.9
|
|
-0.6
|
1.0
|
|
0.8
|
0.4
|
Augost
|
4.6
|
0.8
|
|
3.5
|
2.1
|
|
1.7
|
0.3
|
September
|
7.0
|
2.1
|
|
7.4
|
2.5
|
|
2.5
|
0.2
|
October
|
5.1
|
-0.2
|
|
5.6
|
-0.4
|
|
2.0
|
0.1
|
a The pe
rcentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the current month compared with the CPI in the
previous month.
b The percentage change in the CPI in the current month compared with the CPI in the same month in the
previous year.
c The percentage change in the average exchange rate in the current month compared with the average
exchange rate in the previous month .
d The percentage change in the average exchange rate in the current month compared with the average
exchange rate in the same month in the previous year.
|